Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 19.786131 22.539195 25.509164 28.947864 32.816180 37.029787 41.963747
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 15.836057 19.583548 23.937863 29.357383 35.907592 43.553652 53.140155
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.727520 17.891993 22.965025 29.574186 37.929567 48.111282 61.426705
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.910872 16.271039 21.810855 29.326126 39.210587 51.717431 68.685190
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.715814 15.244406 21.210432 29.589127 40.986924 55.875686 76.710159
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 9.976782 14.720244 21.175600 30.526204 43.632798 61.243381 86.568350
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 8.964018 13.693236 20.330697 30.230330 44.503323 64.195031 93.244244
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 7.738327 12.229784 18.726236 28.695166 43.466232 64.372037 95.978467
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 7.298187 11.884037 18.694393 29.407942 45.664286 69.187195 105.512808
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 6.922951 11.596512 18.712310 30.171347 47.951191 74.216867 115.588815
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 6.369720 10.974523 18.161343 30.005936 48.793122 77.118034 122.608463
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 5.803183 10.278251 17.433731 29.496032 49.042368 79.099303 128.286139
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 5.385679 9.803877 17.039916 29.513217 50.156025 82.520284 136.465856
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.091629 9.514685 16.926319 29.976295 52.009384 87.192290 146.862210
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.780403 9.164920 16.677794 30.181940 53.428100 91.212099 156.375508
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.421741 8.697418 16.188885 29.934201 54.055308 93.955900 163.917680
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.178989 8.420229 16.008177 30.200591 55.557136 98.191746 174.103854
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.058870 8.362528 16.212155 31.156324 58.299994 104.628038 188.283871
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 3.768773 7.952374 15.741998 30.854551 58.789727 107.232174 196.017518
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.337551 7.226558 14.630562 29.289782 56.901866 105.605383 196.299870
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.232063 7.147285 14.737663 30.016325 59.238134 111.495601 210.066551
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.138478 7.084231 14.869811 30.794479 61.705115 117.722310 224.701424
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 2.943306 6.791245 14.528151 30.625874 62.367311 120.707449 233.594340